I’m simply trying to write more. Because of this, some of my works may not be as well-researched or well-organized. I may write from memory. This is one such work. If I have multiple biases, I will try to specify one bias at the beginning of the essay and another at the end of the essay.

Bias One: I’m Pro Labor

Taking a minor issue (or an extreme scenario), getting someone to agree with your position, and then using that agreement against them in a major issue is a classic tactic to try and win arguments or debates. I tend to believe sports are the proving grounds for this type of tactic when it comes to issues of labor. It’s easy for ownership to draw a distinction between the one-, two-, and three-comma clubs for the purposes of gaining fan sympathy. However once that happens, capital has never refrained from utilizing these concessions on issues where they have far less moral standing.

The Issues

The Future of Megacontracts

With the seeming inevitability of the salary cap, one of the more interesting questions to ask is: What will happen to the megacontracts? While the Dodgers are the canonical team referenced when describing this situation, all teams with a top 5 payroll have at least one player where this is issue becomes relevant. Will there be maximum contracts under the new collective bargaining agreement? And if so, will the megacontracts be pinned to the maximum? How is the remaining contract money classified? This is an underrated element of finalizing any deal. While ownership almost certainly agrees with the idea that there should be a salary cap, existing compensation for your superstars and stars will serve as a potential wedge issue for your large- and small-market teams. If the labor union can successfully exploit this question, the expected two-party negotiation (labor v. capital) could instead become a three-party negotiation (players v. small market v. large market).

Service Time

While on the surface, the fate of the megacontracts might be the most interesting point of discussion, I actually think that the resolution of service time issues will present the biggest impact on the future of the MLB. The most practical question is what happens if baseball loses a year. Should minor league players be punished for the failings of their senior members to come to an agreement with the capital class? Minor league players are not the individuals negotiating with the MLB on this agreement. This means that their future and the compensation for lost service time opportunity is in the hands of two parties that are not incentivized to consider their best interest. This is not a theoretical concern; there is a history of MLB players making concessions to the detriment of minor league players. However, I would be surprised if service time is one of those issues on which the players capitulate to ownership. After all, in a sport where analytics suggest you enter your prime as early as age 23, getting to free agency as soon as possible is mutually beneficial to official MLBPA members and future ones.

The TV Deal(s)

By now, everyone knows that with the exception of the NFL, the American sports TV deal is shambles. This is largely because of the demise of regional sports networks. People much more informed than myself have been covering the paradoxically slow and sudden implosion of Sinclair and Diamond Sports regional sports networks. Since I’m too lazy to remember exactly who I’ve read, I will say that I believe that Sportico and Awful Announcing are likely to have to most literature on this issue. If you are interested in chronologically tracking the demise of these networks, I recommend starting there.

With this context in mind, there is an understandable desire from both labor and capital to get a deal done. For those who aren’t aware, part of any salary cap formula in the other major sports is sports-related revenue. This typically includes money from TV deals. If I remember correctly, I believe that the mass renewal of MLB TV deals happens in 2028. Having long-term, predictable labor peace is crucial to maximizing TV deals for both the teams and the players. Will the fan experience suffer? Despite my personal distaste for Rob Manfred, he has shown immense interest in ending the catastrophic TV blackout situation by creating a unified streaming experience. With the historical pedigree of MLB’s technological arm, this is not out of the question. In fact, losing a year of baseball and returning with a universal streaming app would be a spectacular olive branch to the average fan. One final aside: it’s ironic that Iowa has a completely outsized impact on the choosing the leader of the free world but is blacked out by 20% of major league baseball.

A Trumpian Specter

“Does Donald Trump love sports?” Any poll asking this question should receive at least 75% YES (it should be higher but I don’t trust voters). He’s a New Yorker, so while I don’t know his favorite sport, I suspect he likes everything except for hockey (Rangers and Islanders just don’t seem to have the same motion as the other teams). However, he has shown a particular affinity for football and baseball. Should this labor dispute extend past the NBA Finals, the chances of a presidential intervention greatly increases. This is where things become interesting. Some would accuse the American World Baseball Classic players of performing for President Trump. Were these behaviors genuine? I don’t know. However, I think it’s pretty easy to predict that in the event of an intervention, those outward demonstrations of support are not going to save them from the President aligning himself with ownership. Did they really think a president notorious for not paying labor would take their side?

Bias Two: Your Owner Sucks With or Without A Salary Cap

Here’s the dirty secret: MLB teams won’t open their books because most of them are profitable. If you aren’t profitable, it’s because you suck at being a steward of your team or you have no interest in doing so. Two things can be true: revenue distribution can be broken and your owner will still be cheap and/or risk-averse if the former is remediated. If you are teams like the Brewers, Pirates, and Twins, when have you seen your current ownership take a gamble?

Conclusion

Hope you have a better understanding of the issues leading up into this probable lockout. While I know our solutions may differ, I believe anyone still reading this cares about the overall health of the game. I hope we can move in that direction together.

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